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Ecology Lab Quiz 26 November 2002 Name_____________________________ A population of duck-billed platypuses has been determined to have the following stage transition matrix:
AGE 1
BECAUSE 1-YR OLDS CAN’T BE 1 YR-OLD IN THE NEXT YEAR, ETC. THE ONLY CELLS IN THE MATRIX BELOW THE AGE-CLASS O ROW THAT HAVE VALUES ARE FOR 1-YR OLDS TURNING INTO 2-YR OLDS, 2-YR OLDS TURNING INTO 3-YR OLDS, AND 3+-YR OLDS SURVIVING.
THE 30 1-YR OLDS HAVE 9 OFFSPRING (30 * 0.3), THE 2YR OLDS
HAVE 20 (40 * 0.5) AND THE 3+ GROUP HAVE 9 (30 * 0.3), SO THERE ARE 9+20+9=38
OFFSPRING.
15, OR 0.5 * THE 30 INDIVIDUALS IN AGE-CLASS 1.
IN A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS, WE CHANGE ONE PARAMETER IN OUR ECOLOGICAL MODEL (SURVIVORSHIP AT A GIVEN AGE, FOR EXAMPLE) AND SEE HOW THAT CHANGES OVERALL POPULATION SIZE. WE THEN CHANGE ANOTHER PARAMETER AND SEE IF WE GET A LARGER OR SMALLER CHANGE IN POPULATION SIZE. IN THIS MANNER WE CAN DETERMINE WHICH OF THE MODEL PARAMETERS IS MOST SENSITIVE TO CHANGE, AND HENCE WOULD BE THE MOST EFFECTIVE WAY TO MANAGE THE POPULATION FOR WHATEVER END WE DESIRE (YEILD OF TUNA, SURVIVORSHIP OF RED-COCKADED WOODPECKERS, ETC.)
THE OUTER CELLS, LAID DOWN IN LATE SUMMER AND EARLY AUTUMN,
ARE SMALLER AND HAVE THICKER CELL WALLS.
SAID FORESTER WOULD LOOK FOR THE PERIOD IN WHICH THE TREE
RINGS WERE WIDEST. THIS INDICATES THAT THE TREE STAND IS GROWING FAST.
HARVESTING WOULD BE CARRIED OUT AT THE AGE WHEN THE TREE RINGS START NARROWING,
INDICATING THAT THE TREES AREN’T GROWING MUCH, SO THEY SHOUD BE HAVESTED AND
SOLD TO MAKE ROOM FOR YOUNGER, FASTER GROWING INDIVIDUALS.
BY MATCHING UP RING PATTERNS FROM
LIVING TREES WITH DEAD OR FOSSILIZED TREES. IF YOU CAN FIND A DEAD TREE WHOSE
OUTERMOST RINGS MATCH A PATTERN FOUND IN THE INNERMOST RINGS OF A LIVING TREE,
YOU CAN EXTEND YOUR RECORD OF CLIMATE BACK TO THE EARLY RING PERIOD OF THE OLDER
DEAD TREE.
BY REPEATING EXPERIMENTS WE CAN CALCULATE MEANS AND
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR OUR RESPONSE VARIABLES. WITHOUT KNOWING ABOUT THE DEGREE
OF VARIABILITY IN WHATEVER WE’RE MEASURING, WE CAN’T BE CONFIDENT THAT OUR
RESULTS ARE RELIABLE. FROM A PRACTICAL POINT OF VIEW, WE CAN’T USE STATISTICS
UNLESS WE HAVE A NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS OF OUR VARIABLES.
BECAUSE WE REALLY ONLY HAVE 1 EXPERIMENTAL TREATMENT. WE CAN’T TELL IF THE DIFFERENCES WE SAW (OR DIDN’T SEE) IN THE CONTROL AND EXPERIMENTAL SITES WERE THE EFFECT OF THE EXPERIMENTAL TREATMENT OR CAUSED BY SOME EXTRANEOUS VARIABLE—PERHAPS THE SOILS WERE DIFFERENT ON THE TWO SIDES OF THE ROAD AND THIS HAD A BIGGER INFLUENCE ON TREE GROWTH THAN THE EXPERIMENTAL BURN. TO AVOID THIS PROBLEM, WE WOULD NEED TO REPEAT THE CONTROLLED BURN IN SEVERAL DIFFERENT AREAS. WITH ENOUGH REPLICATIONS, THE EFFECTS OF OUTSIDE INFLUENCES SHOULD CANCEL THEMSELVES OUT—WE WOULDN’T EXPECT TO HAVE THE SAME DIFFERENCES IN THE SOIL EVERY TIME WE SET UP CONTROL AND BURN PLOTS. |